Pfizer: Inverted Head and Shoulder?

A very small inverted head and shoulders chart pattern has been observed on the Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) daily chart.  The head is at $14.00, whilst the left and right shoulders are at $14.40.  The neckline has been broken with rising volume.  Stochastic is not in over-bought region.  All these are good signs for this pharmaceutical giant.  This is good news for Pfizer, whose stock price has been falling since year 2000, from a high of $45, down to yesterday's $15.02.  The forward P/E is down to 7x for 2011. 

However, all those good signs may turn negative, if analysts' estimates are not met when Pfizer makes their Q2 2010 quarterly earnings announcement next week (Aug 3rd, 2010). 

Trade with caution and happy investing!

Investment Psychology: Unload the Burden of the Past

Yesterday, I talked about 2 common mistakes novice investors make with Bottom Fishing.  Today, let's discuss another aspect of investment psychology.

Some investors tend to be constantly haunted by their past failures.  He/she may have lost a substantial sum in the last recession, the last market crash, the last market correction; or he/she may have lost the 'golden opportunity' to make millions of dollars.

These past burdens loaded on their shoulders as well as their mind.  When the crashing down market has turned, they are simply frozen by their past burdens and fail to act sensibly.  They are still licking their wounds while letting once in a decade opportunity pass. 

It is essential for any investor to realise the fact that he/she cannot be 100% right.  Nobody can!  Past losses, missed opportunities are all in the past.  No matter how sad, how remorseful you are, you can't turn back the clock and correct those mistakes.  Such past lessons should serve as your personal case studies, for you to analyse why the mistakes were made, what had gone wrong in your decision-making process.  They should be stepping stones to future successes, instead of being burdens that drag your feet. 

Happy investing!

Bottom Fishing

There are two mistakes that novice investors make with 'bottom fishing'. 

The first mistake is bottom fish too early.  'Bottom fishing' becoming ugly catching a falling wedge, and investor gets hurt, sometimes seriously.  A good example is the fall of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) from its all time high of 6000 points down to less than 1/3 of its peak value of 1600 points.  When you 'bottom fish' when SSE had fallen 50% at 3000 points, another 50% drop in value is still in store for you. 

The second mistake is to go for the 'ultimate bottom'.  People wait for that absolute lowest price before they bottom fish.  When the ultimate bottom comes, nobody actually knows that's ultimate bottom, unless you can predict the future in exact details.  Then when the ultimate bottom has passed, and prices start to climb back, the novice investor thinks he/she has missed the golden opportunity and is unwilling to pay for the higher price.

The first mistake will burn a hole in your wallet, while the second mistake will make you lose the opportunity for good profits.

TianTian Hananese Chicken Rice @ Maxwell Hawker Center

My curiosity made me queue up for another long queue stall at the famous Maxwell hawker center.  This time, the stall is Tian Tian Hananese Chicken Rice. 

Interestingly, this stall is right behind another famous stall, the Zhen Zhen Porridge, which I blogged about in this blog entry. 

Ok, back to the story.  At 11.30AM, at a time when most Singaporeans are having their breakfast, there was already a long queue at the stall.  Some of them are from as far away as Thailand!

I patiently waited in the queue and finally got my dear dear chicken drumstick rice, for S$3.50.

So here came my chicken rice.  They boasted that the rice is so fragrance that it can be eaten just on its own.  I was not sure whether I got a blocked nose, I didn't smell anything.  The rice was a bit dry, and you need to chew hard.

The chicken was not bad.  Very juicy (oily?) and tender.  Then that came the role of chilly sauce.  Somehow their chilly sauce has a super long lingering time.  One hour after taking the meal, that taste still lingered in my taste buds. 

My rating: 3/5

In my humble opinion, it is not really worth the wait.  :)

National Bank of Greece - Update

It has been almost a month since I last wrote about National Bank of Greece in this blog entry. Now let's look at how this stock has performed in the past month.

The price of NBG has hit a low of $2.11, 2 cents higher than its March 2009 low, then it bounced back and ranged between $2.11 and $2.50.  The stock has a break-out of the $2.50 initial resistance, and is moving up.  The short-term GMMA has penetrated the long-term GMMA.  This is good as a new trend, an up trend maybe in the making.  However, I don't expect the price to shoot up.  Instead, I am expecting the price will go sideways around $2.80.  The uptrend will only continue if the price can break $3.60 resistance. 

This stock will be susceptable to news.  The stress test on 91 European banks was announced yesterday, and we are still yet to see the response from the rest of the world when they digest the information.  The RSI is now above 70, pull-back should be expected.  In case of a pull-back, $2.50 will serve as a support level, followed by the recent low of $2.11.

Happy investing.

Dave Wang World Tour 2010 (2010 王杰世界巡回演唱会 . 新加坡)

Secured myself a ticket to Dave Wang's World Tour concert in Singapore today.  Dave Wang's songs somewhat had been the companion of my growing up years, and his songs are sentimental.  After being absent from the Cantonese pop scene for so many years, he finally resurfaced in the past few years.  He had hinted this year's world tour will be his last and it is also his farewell concert. 

I have missed the opportunity to watch great singers, such as Micheal Jackson, Anita Mui, Leslie Cheung, perform whilst they were still alive, I am not going to miss this one.  It is the very first time that I went for the most expensive category of tickets, I have never ever been so willing to fork out 158 bucks for a concert, but, life is all about experiences.  The purpose of having money and wealth, and achieving financial freedom is to do what you want to do, and experience life to the full.  Just like one of Dave's most famous songs, A Game, A Dream, that's life!

I am so looking forward to his concert in Singapore in Oct!

You can find my post-concert review here.

Shanghai Stock Exchange Index Update - 18Jul2010

We previously observed the break-down of SSE from the descending triangle, and expected it to head toward the thereabouts of 2200 points in this blog entry. However, SSE rebounded strongly in the following sessions, and it once even hit the support turn resistance levels of 2475.  Unfortunately, the rebound didn't sustain, and it again began to trend down.

Looking at the daily chart, the GMMA is still trending down, the separation between the long term GMMA and short term GMMA maintains.  This means the down trend is still intact.  Further downside is to be expected. 

There has been some talk about a reverse of the tightening policy in China.  If that becomes true, we will expect a reverse in the trend as well.  People invested in China stocks may like to pay closer attention to such developments.

Food Hunt in Johor Bahru - Teck Sing Restaurant (德星茶餐室)

Had lunch at Teck Sing Char Chan Teng at Taman Sentosa this afternoon.  We ordered 3 dishes - Paper-wraped herbal chicken, drunk prawn in yellow rice wine and fried lettuce. 

Before our food came, a slice of watermelon was served as our appetizer. 

After a long time, our main dishes finally came. 

The first dish was the steaming hot drunk prawn.  The prawns were soaked deep in a soup which is thick with yellow rice wine, and together with seasonings such as garlic, ginger and spring onion.  The soup was excellent, delicious, thumbs up!  The prawns are not bad too.  However, there were two types of prawns they used.  One is of bigger size, whilst the other is smaller.  The bigger prawns were fresh and good, but the smaller ones were not really that fresh.  So do take note of this.  If not for the smaller unfresh prawns, I would have given this dish a 10/10!  But for the freshness issue, I will give it a 9/10.

Next came the signature dish - Paper-wrapped herbal chicken. 

Again the soup is thick and strong in taste.  I personally like the prawn more than the chicken, as the chicken is still not as good as the one I had in Nepal, somewhere high in the mountains.  Nonetheless, this dish is still a great dish.  My complaint is that the meat is a bit on the dry side, I would like it to be more tender and juicy.  I will give it a 8.5/10. 

On the back of their tissue paper package, there is an introduction to their paper-wrapped herbal chicken in both Chinese and English.  I can tell the owner of this restaurant has a very good idea in terms of marketing.

If you want to look for this restaurant, this is how it looks from the outside.  To get there, you can take a bus from City Square, and then alight when you see the Crystal Crown Hotel.  Then walk towards Taman Seri Tebrau Hawker Center direction, and then turn into Jalan Keris 1.  Walk all the way to Taman Sentosa.  Or just take a taxi from City Square to Taman Sentosa lah. 

For the address of the restaurant, you can visit their website at http://www.tecksing.com/ . 

For your information, just a few steps away from this restaurant, there is a famous Bak Kuh Teh shop.  I have seen it being busy from 12.30pm all the way to 14.30pm. 

I have not tried this restaurant myself, as it was hard to find a table, but judging from the non-stop crowd , it shouldn't be too bad. 

Johor Bahru Malaysia Update

Went over the causeway to pay Johor Bahru a visit today.  First I went to Pelangi Plaza.  It was a shopping very popular with Singaporeans for its close proximaty to Singapore.

The state of the mall is still good.  Shiny floors and well maintained building facilities.  However, 20-30% of the shops in mall are vacant.  There are no tenants.  The remaining tenants in the mall, ironically, are mostly Singapore-owned companies, such as Cold Storage Supermarket, Popular Book Store, Yun Nam, and some other Singapore brands.  Shopping crowd is still there, just the crowd is very small, very small, although still better than the crowd number I saw in the US malls.

Another shopping mall I visited is City Square.  It is a very very popular mall with Singaporeans, as it is just a stone's throw away from Johor Bahru's CIQ building.  The mall provides almost all the needs to a shopper.  From entertainment such as cinemas, to hang-out places such as Coffee Bean.  Let alone the fast food stores such as McDonald's.  City Square is legend, nobody would expect it would do badly, even with the opening of the new Johor Bahru CIQ building.  However, I again saw quite a number of shops are now vacant.  There are no tenants.  This mall still commands much better visitorship than Pelangi Plaza, but the deterioration is worrying. 

Then I moved to the streets near to the old Johor Bahru CIQ building, which had been demolished.  The stores are disappearing in clusters.  The neighbouring building to City Square - Merlin Tower, is like a ghost town, hardly anyone there. 

There have been reports on Malaysia economy, with positive tones, but obviously that positive development does not reflect in this part of the country.  I wonder as this part of the city is dying slowly, that must be another part of the city that should be slowly booming.  Which part is it?  I am very keen to find out.

Milan Duomo: Then and Now

It is my honour to have the opportunity to see the different phases of the restoration/renovation of Milan's Duomo, one of the world's most famous Gothic cathedrals. 

Let's first look at this old old painting of Milan Duomo.  Then follow by another photo of it undergoing a restoration of its facade back in 2005.

The richly decorated facade was covered up for cleaning, to remove the marks left by the industrial revolution of Europe. 

In 2007, things got better.  Duomo lowered the veil and revealed a bit more of its beauty. 

The boards illustrated the different phases of the restoration work.  A long process spanning 7 years from 2003 to 2009.  So let's see how it looks like after the restoration work in 2010.

Unfortunately, when yours truly visited this magnificent cathedral in May this year, the weather was bad, always raining, non-stop raining.  So I can only present to you a less magnificent view from the square of this 4th largest church in the world.

Bulguksa Temple Korea: Then and Now

You know you are old when you can have both THEN & NOW photos from your own album.  Here is the 'THEN' photo of the Bulguksa Temple bell tower taken back in 2001 in Gyeongju, South Korea. 

And here is the 'NOW' photo taken in 2009.  I am not actually sure which one is better. 

And here is the 'THEN' photo of the main hall of the temple itself, which is a world heritage site.

And here comes the 'NOW' photo of the same hall, but from a different angle. 

10 years might not make much difference to a structure which had been standing for hundreds of years, but it is a large percentage of a normal human being's life.  10 years, did I improve?  Did I not? 

Thank You, My Visitors!!

This is the visitors' map that I captured today of people visiting my blog.  Out of the 7 continents we have on planet earth, I have the honour to have visitors from 6 of them, too bad, nobody living in antartica has paid my blog a visit. :)

I am really thankful to all the people who visited my blog, especially those who had left their foot steps behind.  Internet is a great place to share, and also to get to know people.  I may not be a successful blogger, as the number of visitors to my blog is still very small, but I am still happy.  They are my source of energy to keep going, maintaining this small little not-yet-famous blog. 

THANK YOU!

Bangkok - After the Turmoil

It has been five long years since I last set foot on Bangkok.  I didn't expect I would visit Bangkok, just a month after one of the worst turmoils in Thailand's history.  The conflict between former prime minister Taksin & his red shirt supporters, and the incubent Thai government ended in loss of life and damage to many buildings in the city. 

Before I arrived in Bangkok, somehow I was expecting some kind of mess left after the red shirts retreated, and might feel some tension in the city.  However, the city is almost as normal as I could remember.  Students are crowded the trains and buses, hurrying to school; those dressed nicely in their office attire seem to only worry about whether they could get to work on time.  The streets are clean, shops are open for business as usual.  I was kind of relieved to know, at least on the surface, everything had returned to normal in Bangkok.

The Siam Discovery Centre, The Siam Square, MBK building, The Siam Paragon, are all standing intact.  No damage done to all these popular tourist hot spots.  When I was in Bangkok back in 2005, we left just a day before Siam Paragon was to open for business.  Wow, didn't know it would take me 5 long years to see it in business :)  Siam Paragon is chic, is expensive.  The shopping centre is grand on any scale that I have known of.  In addition, it is stylish.  It is more than just big in scale, it has its own characters that differentiates itself from other big shopping centres in the region, such as Vivo City in Singapore, the Mid-Valley in Malaysia. 

The only reminder of the month ago turmoil was the security check at many shopping centres.  Visitors were still asked to open their bags for a security check.  Metal detectors were also installed at many shopping centre's entrances, as well as airport train link stations.  However, such security checks were really lax.  If somebody wants to smuggle in something, piece of cake.  It is not really practical to check every visitor, every bag.  If they do so, the queues at the entrance will be miles long.  It will be worse at the train stations. 

In conclusion, it is safe to visit Bangkok now.  The turmoil is over.  It is perfectly safe, until the next turmoil comes.  If you ask me whether I will return to Bangkok, most probably not.  Not for its security conditions, but rather, the city has 'raised' its status.  It is no longer cheap, at least it takes quite a bit of effort for a foreign tourist to find cheap stuff.  The city of smiles does not really smile as much as it used to.  Ok, the city's transport system has improved tremendously over the past 5 years, I must agree.  Anyway, Bangkok is a city no longer on my list of cities I will visit frequently.  The charm, somehow, is lost.

DBS Vickers Market Update - 10 July 2010

Attended DBS Vickers' half-year market update seminar yesterday.  It was a very interesting seminar.  For record purpose, I attended two previous market update seminars as well.  In 2009's market update, they were pounding on the table to ask everybody to buy buy buy, and you already know what happened in 2009, STI went from 1400+ to can't remember what level, just remember STI moved up a lot.  Then in Feb 2010's market update, they were not so optimistic, saying most probably STI will hit major resistance at around 3000 points, and STI is still struggling below 3000 today.  And they recommended to buy Broadway.  The price at that time was about 70+ cents, now it is more than S$1.00.  But, the bad thing is I never followed their advice, so I am still a poor man :)

Ok, that's for the past.  During the seminar, one of the speakers shared his interesting view on the expectation of the appreciation of Chinese Yuan.  He mentioned a raise of workers' wages in China, and bascially he hinted that letting the Chinese Yuan to appreciate in value is going to be all bad, no good for China, but mostly good for the developed world (you know who). 

The same speaker also shared some interesting fact about the change of leadership in the coming years, and how it will affect the market.  That, again, is something interesting.  I am not going to write about what he said here, if you are interested, drop me a note.

Another speaker gave the audience the outlook for the Singapore market in 2H 2010.  If you have been following their daily newsletter, then it would not be too surprised to hear the same views. 

In a nutshell, the market seminar is quite eye-opening and it gave me a fresh perspective on looking at certain developments. 

S & P 500 Head & Shoulders Confirmed

With S & P 500 broke down below 1044 points, the super bearish head & shoulders chart formation has been confirmed.  Using the distance from the neck-line to the head as price projection, the S&P500 is expected to fall to around 877 points.  After that, there is a possibility that it might fall back to its March 2009 low of 666 points, a devil's number. 

For the savvy investors or traders, they may be getting ready to short the market.  For those who only like to go long, they may be hording cash in their various bank accounts, waiting for the bottom to come and then attack at the right time.  It is going to be very interesting in the coming days to see how the market behaves. 

Osaka Castle: Then and Now

Two photos showing the then and now of the world famous Osaka Castle.  There is almost no change in terms of physical structures, but just more trees in the 'now' photo.  It seems Japanese have done a pretty good job in preserving their history and their past.  In contrast, Chinese are too money-minded, they squeeze almost every cent out from their rich past, and they do it almost always destructively.  It pains me to have to go overseas to see our own cultural treasures, our intangible culture of ancient Chinese.  The virtues of ancient Chinese, the Zheng-Qi, are little left in the nothing but money modern China.  Sad!

Nikken 225 Update

The chart of Nikkei 225 looks pretty ugly.  Taking March 2009 low to April 2010 high as 100% and draw the Fibonacci retracement lines, you will notice Nikkei has exceeded its 50% retracement level of 9213.  Momentum is down, and RSI is weak.  The short-term GMMA expands and the separation between short-term GMMA & long-term GMMA expands too.  The down trend is intact.  Further weakness in Nikkei should be expected.  There may be a good chance for Nikkei to hit its 61% retracement of 8698 points. 

Patience will be a virtue in such a market for any bottom-fishing opportunities.  Some signs of trend reversal should surface before any long trades.

STI Update

With the recent fall of STI (Straits Times Index), STI might be in the last leg on the formation of the super bearish head and shoulders chart pattern.  At this moment, we still can't confirm the head & shoulders pattern, as we still have to wait and see whether STI will drop to 2647 points, and how STI behaves after that. 

If STI drops below 2647, then the head & shoulders chart pattern is confirmed and we should expect a very bearish bias to STI's further movements.  Investors should put on their best armour to protect themselves from the potential onslaught on share prices. 

If STI drops to 2647 points and then bounces back, then the head & shoulders chart pattern will be invalidated.  It might develop into a side-way pattern, with STI bouncing between support and resistance.  This will be good news to everybody.

If we take March 2009 low to April 2010 high as 100% and draw the Fibonacci retracement lines, we will notice 2645 points thereabout is the 23.6% retracement, after that, 2434 is the 38.2% retracement and 2247 is the 50% retracement. 

Right now is the uncertain period of STI.  The bold investors may buy into opportunities when STI approaches their key levels with proper risk control. 

Happy investing.

Raindrops @ SCAPE Park

Went over to the Raindrops today for dinner.  Raindrops is small little restaurant hidden at one side of the newly opened SCAPE park behind Cathay Cineleisure in Orchard Road. 

The restaurant is really small.  The indoor section can sit at most 28 persons, while the outdoor section can sit another 20 or so people.  In the indoor section, you can see through the glass panels and watch the cook preparing your food.  The restaurant is small, so everything is crammed together, and it is not unusal to hear something dropping down or service staff bumping into each other. 

It seems there are two business owners there, both are young and handsome guys.  They were present at the restaurant, helping out here and there, but at least one of them is not really from the service industry.  He tried to sort out some utensils, but ended up making lots of noise and another service staff helped him get things back in order.  The waiters are most handsome young guys, but the service standard varies from person to person with a big difference.  The only waitress there seemed to be more experienced and knows how to serve. 

We ordered a salmon appetizer, and two different types of steaks for the two of us, both medium rare.  Presentation of the food is not bad.  They give you a sense of elegance. 

Taste-wise, I am not very sure about our salmon appetizer.  Somehow it tasted more like beef than salmon to me. 

The two main courses we ordered were not bad.  The steak in the foreground in the above photo is the ribeye steak, the one in the backgroup is M-something Beef.  In terms of taste, they are both on the lighter side, which is good, and suits me well. 

In comparison, the ribeye is a bit more chewy, while the M-something beef is more juicy, and tender.  If you let me choose again, I will choose the M-something beef.  If they can make the taste just a tat stronger, it will be perfect.

While I was waiting for my food, I observed the operation of this small restaurant.  In addition to the 2 business owners, there are 7 other employees.  One aunty in the kitchen responsible for washing dishes, 2 cooks, and 4 waiting staff.  One of the waiting staff seems to be a leader, taking care of the overall operation.  The two business owners take care of the cashier duty, and help out here and there. 

At 6.30pm, the tables in the indoor section were hardly full.  I am curious to know how long this restaurant can last, as I know it is open for about a month.  I noticed the plates and other utensils they use are all of good quality, not your basar malam goods.  With a total of 9 people serving around only around 12-15 tables, it may not be economically sensible.  Ok, let's see.  I probably will go back to check it out in 6 months time. 

Puma Sales @ Novena

There is PUMA sales now going on at Novena's Velocity.  Shoes range from $35 to $60, and bags starting from $35.

I happened to bump into this sales, and impressed with their prices.  I got myself a pair of nice walking shoes at the price of $60.  I like the design, and the shoes fit me well.  Comfortable while walking.  This price is comparable to those outlet store prices in the US, maybe just slightly more expensive, but compare with the normal sales, it is more like a 50% discount. 

They have a range of bag, havsacks available too.  Too bad, I don't like their bags, too ah beng for this old man :) 

Go and take a look if you are interested. 

Microstock: Negligence

It has been quite a while since I last wrote about microstock.  It is negligence!  I have neglected my microstock business for some time.  I am too busy at my full-time job, and then my computer's hard disk crashed after 5 years of loyal services.  Now I have a new computer, but still don't have the necessary software tools to start editing my photos.  Uploads to all the sites have almost droped down to 0 for more than 2 months. 

This serves as a good example that you need to spend time and effort to maintain your business in microstock.  Some people may think that microstock is a TRUE passive income source.  Once you established a sizeable portfolio, then all you have to do is to sit back and wait for all the money to come in.  This is not entirely true.  Once you stop uploading photos, your existing photos will tend to drop down in buyers' searches, eventually they will be buried deep in the thousands and thousands of new photos being uploaded every week. 

Negligence is never a virtue in any form of business.  If you are serious about making some money, even just pocket money, from microstock, you should maintain a constant presence in the industry. 

Happy shooting :)